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Prediction for CME (2023-12-25T09:38:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-12-25T09:38Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/28336/-1
CME Note: Very faint partial halo only seen in SOHO LASCO C2 and COR2A difference imagery (not seen in C3), with the likely source a sigmoid-shaped filament eruption centered around (N20E10) extending from N25E25 in the NE to AR 3530 (S08W10). The filament is seen erupting after 2023-12-25T07:20Z in SDO AIA 193 (as dimming and post-eruptive arcades) and 304 (as arcade footpoint brightening). Filament not seen in H-Alpha (but seen in AIA 211). Faint halo with slight east bias. Arrival Signature: Characterized by amplification in magnetic field components, with B_total reaching a maximum of 11nT at 2023-12-29T21:42Z. Accompanied by a minor increase in speed from ~360 km/s to ~390 km/s. Density data is speculative as there are discrepancies between DSCOVR and ACE, as well as data gaps. Prior to the arrival, there were several bumps in density around 2023-12-28T22:45Z, 2023-12-29T02:50Z, and 2023-12-29T08:45Z, possibly due to the preceding CME arrival from 2023-12-27T08:26Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-12-29T11:34Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-12-28T14:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 80.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2023-12-25T14:01Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 538
Longitude (deg): 001E
Latitude (deg): 02S
Half-angular width (deg): 28

Notes: 25/1617Z: Faint full halo with slight east bias, used C2 and COR2 for fitting. Low confidence in cone angle and therefore speed, but high for Earth-bound trajectory given emission location. Ribbon flares and faint filament arcade left as footprint in its wake. A lot of CMEs in MOSWOC Enlil make this a volatile forecast. 25/1859Z: Edited to increase Kp after assessing risk of arriving as united front around middle of 28 Dec UTC day.
Space weather advisor: Michael Lawrence

Lead Time: 88.58 hour(s)
Difference: 21.57 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2023-12-25T18:59Z

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